When it comes to analyzing a company’s financials, there are many avenues we can take. One way is through multiples; calculating the EV/2P multiple is the focus of this analysis.
This ratio looks at a business' enterprise value against its proven and probable 2P reserves. While ratios or multiples are used in valuing companies, this metric is used chiefly to value gas and oil companies for energy sector analysts. Analysts use this calculation to determine the likelihood that a company's reserve resources can underpin its functioning and expansion efforts. Along with the ratio, analysts use micro and macro factors to determine a company's financial health, its growth prospects, and whether the business is undervalued or overvalued.
This multiple is similar in comparison to other valuation multiples such as Price-to-Book (P/B), Price-to-Earnings (PE), Enterprise Value/Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization. While these other metrics can also value an oil or gas company, understanding how it's calculated is essential to why it is sector specific.
Breaking Down the EV/2P Ratio
EV = Market Value of Equity + Market Value of Debt – Cash and Cash Equivalents
It's determined by the complete market worth asserted by the bond and equity holders (net of cash).
2P = Proven Reserves + Probable Reserves
The reserves of a company give analysts and investors an idea of the likelihood of the recoverability of reserves being produced and assisting the company's growth. Proven reserves, often denoted as "P1" or "P90," are rated at a 90 percent chance of recovering successfully. Probable reserves, also called "P50," have a 1-in-2 chance of recovering. Both reserve types and their likelihood of being recovered are, therefore, referred to as 2P.
It's important to note a third category referred to as "possible reserves." This category is not factored into the company's valuation because the 10 percent to 50 percent likelihood of reserve recoverability is too low.
Example
Illustrating how it's calculated gives a more complete picture of how to analyze the results. For example, say a business' market capitalization is $200 million with a net debt of $100 million, giving it an enterprise value of $300 million. Assuming the company has $10 million of probable reserves, $20 million of proven reserves, and $15 million of possible reserves, the calculation is as follows:
EV = $300 million ($200 million + $100 million)
2P reserves = $30 million ($10 million + $20 million)
Therefore, $300 million/$30 million = $10
Every dollar of its market capitalization is worth $10 based on its 2P reserves. Once the calculation is determined, the ratio of the EV/2P is measured against the energy sector's average ratio. The higher the EV/2P ratio, especially against its peers, the higher valuation the company has compared to other companies with the same amount of 2P reserves. The company's shares are sold at a higher multiple than other companies.
It's important to keep in mind that if a company's financials are stronger or it's more efficient and provides a better prospect for investors against its peers, its lofty valuation may be justified. It's also important to not look at valuing companies exclusively with this ratio/multiple but also review other metrics and the macro-economic conditions before making a final investment decision.
While this multiple is primarily used for the energy industry, those who use it should be mindful to not analyze a company in that lens only, but to use a holistic analysis when valuing any type of company.
